---
name: revenue-forecast-assumption-check
description: Turn an approved revenue forecast into a traceable driver table and sensitivity cases without presenting model output as booked revenue.
license: CC-BY-4.0
---

# Revenue Forecast Assumption Check

Turn an approved revenue forecast into a traceable driver table and sensitivity cases without presenting model output as booked revenue.

This is a free research and planning workflow, not a grant to send, publish, spend or change accounts. Use approved sources only.

## Inputs

Historical actuals by period, approved forecast period, segment and currency, pricing, volume or conversion drivers, contractual commitments and source dates.

## Workflow

1. Align historical periods, segments and currencies. Reconcile actual revenue to the source ledger and separate booked contracts from pipeline or speculative leads.
2. Write each forecast line as an explicit driver calculation, such as qualified volume multiplied by observed conversion and average realized price. State assumptions and sample sizes.
3. Build base, lower and upper cases by changing one or two named drivers at a time. Show which inputs are evidenced and which require an owner estimate; never infer certainty from a clean spreadsheet.
4. Reconcile totals, compare forecast to the prior period and approved budget, and produce an owner-review note for material changes. Do not treat a forecast as an invoice, approval to spend or regulatory disclosure.

## Output contract

`period | segment | actual/source | driver formula | assumption and source | base | lower | upper | owner review`

## Worked fictional example

Fictional business: 100 qualified leads per month, observed 10% conversion and $500 average realized price produce a $5,000 monthly base case. At 6% conversion with other inputs unchanged, the lower case is $3,000. Neither case is $5,000 cash collected.

## Verification and boundaries

Check arithmetic, currency, taxes, returns and timing; show sample sizes behind conversion assumptions; keep invoices, recognized revenue and cash receipts separate. Human finance owner approves any external use.

Method source: https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/financial-modeling/financial-modeling-assumptions/