For AI agents: Markdown version of this skill · llms.txt
Free skill · September 29, 2026

Revenue Forecast Assumption Check

Turn an approved revenue forecast into a traceable driver table and sensitivity cases without presenting model output as booked revenue.

By the AI Agent Skills team · 4 min read

Turn an approved revenue forecast into a traceable driver table and sensitivity cases without presenting model output as booked revenue. The download supplies a repeatable input, output and verification process. A person owns the final decision.

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What to provide

Historical actuals by period, approved forecast period, segment and currency, pricing, volume or conversion drivers, contractual commitments and source dates.

How it works

  1. Align historical periods, segments and currencies. Reconcile actual revenue to the source ledger and separate booked contracts from pipeline or speculative leads.
  2. Write each forecast line as an explicit driver calculation, such as qualified volume multiplied by observed conversion and average realized price. State assumptions and sample sizes.
  3. Build base, lower and upper cases by changing one or two named drivers at a time. Show which inputs are evidenced and which require an owner estimate; never infer certainty from a clean spreadsheet.
  4. Reconcile totals, compare forecast to the prior period and approved budget, and produce an owner-review note for material changes. Do not treat a forecast as an invoice, approval to spend or regulatory disclosure.

The output

period | segment | actual/source | driver formula | assumption and source | base | lower | upper | owner review

Worked example

Fictional business: 100 qualified leads per month, observed 10% conversion and $500 average realized price produce a $5,000 monthly base case. At 6% conversion with other inputs unchanged, the lower case is $3,000. Neither case is $5,000 cash collected.

Checks and limits

Check arithmetic, currency, taxes, returns and timing; show sample sizes behind conversion assumptions; keep invoices, recognized revenue and cash receipts separate. Human finance owner approves any external use.

This example is fictional. Keep missing facts marked unknown.

Method: original source. Directional US monthly search estimate for "revenue forecast template": 110, from SearchVolume.io on Sep 29, 2026. This is not a traffic promise.